Note: I posted this on the LessWrong Forum on December 31st 2020. It is somewhat related to this post I made about the project previously.
Forecasting is hard and many forecasting models do not do a particularly good job. The question is: can humans do better? And if so, how can we best use that? This is what I have tried to investigate in the last few months.
Many platforms like Metaculus, Good Judgement, or the Delphi … more