Yesterday, I sold almost all of my cryptocurrencies, securing a decent 20% margin for *checks notes* a net gain of 33 Euros and 78 cents….
Society, Politics and History
Anti-Aging – Overview of the State of the Art
On Lesswrong JackH posted a very interesting overview of aging and the scientific progress made to reverse it. If we think about aging as a…
Three Months of Crowd-Forecasting Covid-19
Note: I posted this on the LessWrong Forum on December 31st 2020. It is somewhat related to this post I made about the project previously….
First Doses First
The UK moved to a first dose first strategy, where they prioritize vaccine uptake over administering second doses. This means that instead of administering the…
Could we Vaccinate Twice as Many People?
Michael Minna raises an intriguing possibility in an opinion piece in the New York Times: Instead of giving people two shots of a vaccine, we…
Losing Taiwan Means Losing Japan
Interesting article about the geopolitical importance of Taiwan to Japan. Taiwan is a chokepoint of great utility for blockading Japan. The Taiwan Strait, it notes,…
Crowd-Forecasting the Covid-19 Pandemic
Some time ago I started working on a crowd-forecasting app for my PhD (code). The app allows experts and non-experts to make predictions for the…
Who Should Get a Vaccine and When?
Announcements of early coronavirus vaccine breakthroughs have inspired new hope this may be the beginning of the end of Covid-19. Developing a vaccine is one…
Replication Markets for Covid-19 Preprints
ReplicationMarkets is launching another project – this time users are asked to predict and bet on the success of preprint papers on Covid-19. The process…
How the Virus Spreads
El País published an article with very nice visualizations of how the coronavirus spreads via aerosols. It’s a light and informative read. Main takeaways: The…