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Categories Forecasting, Statistics

More Is Probably More – Forecasting Accuracy and Number of Forecasters on Metaculus

TLDR All code used for this analysis can be found here.  Introduction One of the central wisdoms in forecasting is that an ensemble of forecasts…

21. February 202321. February 2023
Categories Forecasting

Announcing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge

Next Monday (May 24th 2021) is the official begin of the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge. Over the course of 12 weeks, human forecasters will…

17. May 202123. May 2021
Categories Forecasting

Crowd forecasting Covid-19 Cases and Deaths in Europe

For the past few months of my PhD in epidemiology I have worked on forecasting and forecast evaluation. In many places, forecast models have had…

21. March 202121. March 2021
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