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Statistics

Categories Forecasting, Statistics

More Is Probably More – Forecasting Accuracy and Number of Forecasters on Metaculus

TLDR All code used for this analysis can be found here.  Introduction One of the central wisdoms in forecasting is that an ensemble of forecasts…

21. February 202321. February 2023
Categories Science, Statistics

Three Months of Crowd-Forecasting Covid-19

Note: I posted this on the LessWrong Forum on December 31st 2020. It is somewhat related to this post I made about the project previously….

1. January 20211. January 2021
Categories Science, Statistics

Crowd-Forecasting the Covid-19 Pandemic

Some time ago I started working on a crowd-forecasting app for my PhD (code). The app allows experts and non-experts to make predictions for the…

26. November 202030. November 2020
Categories R, Society, Politics and History, Statistics

Gender Differences Among Top Performers in Chess

Chess is (unfortunately) a man’s world, and gender differences in chess are large. While the gap in average play is not large between men and…

17. October 202017. October 2020
Categories R

R Cheat Sheets

I really wasn’t aware of that for a long time, but for anyone who is using R, these R Cheat Sheets can prove tremendously helpful….

8. July 20208. July 2020
Categories Science, Statistics

A Map of Univariate Distributions

My roommate recently showed me this map of univariate distributions and I think it’s awesome. Here is a snapshot: It visualizes the relationship between different…

30. June 202030. June 2020
Categories Statistics

Friday, 31.01.2020 – The Distribution Zoo

Link of the day: The Distribution Zoo This is an online app that allows you to conveniently visualize different distributions and gives you the mean…

31. January 202030. January 2020
Categories Daily Posts, Statistics

Thursday, 30.01.2020 – Can Statisticians Forecast Better than A guy With A Pencil?

Link of the day: Delphi Epicast I am currently working on a master thesis that tries to predict cases of Ebola in Congo. The models…

30. January 202029. January 2020
Categories R, Statistics

R – Two histograms in One Plot

Recently I was doing Bayesian analysis and wanted to visualize the prior and the posterior distribution of one of my parameters in one plot to…

17. January 202015. January 2020
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