Bets

To make doing good much more fun and to add to the Donation Matching Fund I decided to make a list with private bets I would be willing to take. Here is how it works: Below you find statements that I am willing to bet on as well as corresponding odds. You pick a statement and an amount of money X. If you lose, you have to donate your amount X to a charity I pick. If you win, I will donate an amount c * X to a charity you pick, where c is determined by the odds. Example: I bet that Trump will stay in office until the end of his term and give you odds of 1:4. You take the bet for €1 . If I win (Trump stays in office), you have to donate €1 to a charity I choose. If you win (Trump does not stay in office), I will donate 4 * €1 = €4 to a charity you choose.

  • If you’re willing to bet, please contact me
  • You can of course reverse the bet. In this case the odds just reverse as well. (I. e. if you take the Trump bet, I would pay €0.25 for every Euro you put in if you win (if Trump stays in office). 
  • You can also propose different bets you think are interesting (and associated odds with them). Just be sure to provide a clear date and win condition. 

Bets I would be willing to take

  1. Kim Jong-Un is not announced dead in 2020 (60%, 2:3 odds)
  2. Kim Jong-Un is not announced dead before May 31st 2020 (90%, 1:9 odds)
  3. There will be no vaccine against the coronavirus administered to more than 10,000 people by the end of 2020 (80%, 1:4 odds)
  4. Trump will be reelected in 2020 (55%, 45:55 odds)
  5. There will not be conclusive evidence that the coronavirus originated from a lab in Hubei by 2020 (9ß%, 1:9 odds)
  6. There will be no corona app in Germany with an adoption rate of greater than 50% of smartphone users by the end of 2020 (90%, 1:9 odds)
  7. More than half of all states in the US will vote in person in 2020 (85%, 3:17 odds)
  8. The DAX will close with a lower value on 31.12.2020 than on 31.12.2019 = DAX will be lower than 13 249,01 points on 31.12.2020 (90%, 1:9 odds)
  9. Boris Johnson will remain Prime Minister in 2020 (93% 7:93 odds)
  10. The number of births in December 2020 in Germany will be lower than the number of births in December 2019 (50%, 1:1 odds)
  11. The number of divorces in Germany in  2021 will be lower than the number in 2020 (50%, 1:1 odds) 
  12. Angela Merkel will stay chancellor until the end of the current term (98%, 1:48 odds)
  13. Trump will stay in office until the end of his current term (1:45)
  14. SpaceX will not have put a rocket on Mars until the end of 2022 (1:2.5)
  15. No major war (1000+ casualties) with Iran will happen until 31.12.2020 (1:15)
  16. Marihuana will not be legalized for recreational uses in any part of Germany in 2020 (1:50)
  17. No autonomously driving car will be for sale for private people anywhere in the world until the end of 2025 (1:3)
  18. You will not beat me in a game of chess (1:1.5)
  19. You will not beat me in a game of Halli Galli (1:3)
  20. You will not beat me in Super Mario Kart Double Dahsh on GameCube (1:2)

Running bets

  • If Armin Laschet will be the CDU/CSU candidate for the next general election, I will donate 27 Euros. If not, Chiara will donate 27 Euros.
  • I bet Nathan in February that there will be less than 100 million deaths from Corona until the end of 2020. If there are more I will donate 380 GBP. If not, he will donate 20 GBP.
  • We bet again in May. If there are more than 100 million deaths from Corona until the end of 2020 I will donate 1000 GBP. If not, he will donate 1 GBP.
  • I bet Nathan that less than 50% of all smartphone users will have a contact tracing app installed on their device in Germany. If I am right, Nathan will donate 20 GBP. If there are more than 50% who have such an app, I will donate 120 GBP.
  • I made a bet about the German liberal party, FDP. If they get seats in the parliament, my opponent will donate 15€. If they don’t make it, I will donate 45€.
  • If the number of births in December 2020 is higher than the number of births in December 2019 I will donate 15€. If it is lower, Maike will donate 15€.
  • If the number of divorces in Germany in 2021 is higher than in 2020, I will donate 50€. If it is lower, Maike will donate 50€. 
  • If Joe Biden gets to be Democratic presidential candidate, I donate 30€. If he doesn’t, Samuel donates €20.
  • If the DAX closes on 31.12.2020 with a value higher than 13249 points (value on 31.12.2019), Habakuk donates €25. If it doesn’t, I will donate €50.
  • If Marihuana gets legalized anywhere in Germany for recreational use in 2020 I will donate 480€. If it does not get legalized anywhere in Germany, Philip will donate 30€.
  • If an autonomously driving car will be for sale for private people anywhere in the world until the end of 2025, I will donate €60. If not, Nadia will donate €20.
  • If Carrie Lam is no longer chief administrator of Hong Kong at the end of 2020, I will donate €15. If she is, Jonas will donate €30.

Resolved bets

  • I lost a round of chess against Anton. I donated €15 to effektiv-spenden.org
  • Private bet with Habakuk I lost. I donated €50 to effektiv-spenden.org
  • I bet with Habakuk whether it was Malaria or Smallpox that contributed most to the staggering number of deaths among the South-American natives during the times of the conquistadores. It was Smallpox and I donated 30€ to effektiv-spenden.org
  • I bet with Habakuk about the correct temperature for Onsen eggs. I won and Habakuk donated 10€ to AMF
  • I bet Marius that Elizabeth Warren gets to be Democratic presidential candidate for odds of 1:0.33. I lost and donated 10€. 
  • we had a private bet on where our flatmate will apply for his Erasmus semester. I lost and have donated €10 to Anima International, Receipt #: 4619727
  • Sophia played me in a game of HalliGalli and lost. She donated €6 to Helen Keller International, Reference 133260316
  • We played a game of Rage Cage (for charity reasons only of course) and I bet €10 I would not have to drink anything. Due to Anne’s heroic efforts I lost my bet and donated €10.
  • I played Halli Galli against Hannah twice and won both times. She and Luzy both gave €5. I put this bet together with the one above and donated €20.84 to Evidence Action, donation number 26616750.
  • I bet Sophia (10€) and Malte (20€) that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will be the CDU candidate for the 2021 general election in Germany. The odds were 1:3.5, so I donated 105€ to the EA Fund.

 

 

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