Bets

To make doing good more fun I decided to make a list with private bets I would be willing to take. Here is how it works: Below you find statements that I am willing to bet on as well as corresponding odds. You pick a statement and an amount of money X. If you lose, you have to donate your amount X to a charity I pick. If you win, I will donate an amount c * X to a charity you pick, where c is determined by the odds. Example: I bet that Biden will stay in office until the end of his term and give you odds of 1:20. You take the bet for €1 . If I win (Biden stays in office), you have to donate €1 to a charity I choose. If you win (Biden does not stay in office), I will donate 20 * €1 = €20 to a charity you choose.

  • If you’re willing to bet, please contact me
  • You can of course reverse the bet. In this case the odds just reverse as well. (I. e. if you take the Biden bet, I would pay €0.05 for every Euro you put in if you win (if Biden stays in office). 
  • You can also propose different bets you think are interesting (and associated odds with them). Just be sure to provide a clear date and win condition. 

Bets I would be willing to take

  1. Kim Jong-Un is not announced dead in 2021 (99%, 1:99 odds)
  2. There will not be conclusive evidence that the coronavirus originated from a lab in Hubei by 2020 (95%, 1:20 odds)
  3. The DAX will close with a higher value on 31.12.2022 than on 30.12.2021 (60%, 2:3 odds)
  4. The number of births in December 2020 in Germany will be lower than the number of births in December 2019 (50%, 1:1 odds)
  5. The number of divorces in Germany in  2021 will be lower than the number in 2020 (50%, 1:1 odds) 
  6. Angela Merkel will stay chancellor until the end of the current term (98%, 1:48 odds)
  7. Trump will stay in office until the end of his current term (1:45)
  8. SpaceX will not have put a rocket on Mars until the end of 2022 (1:2.5)
  9. No major war (1000+ casualties) with Iran will happen until 31.12.2021 (98% 1:50)
  10. Marihuana will not be legalized for recreational uses in any part of Germany in 2021 (1:50)
  11. No autonomously driving car will be for sale for private people anywhere in the world until the end of 2025 (1:3)
  12. You will not beat me in a game of chess (1:1.5)
  13. You will not beat me in a game of Halli Galli (1:3)
  14. You will not beat me in Super Mario Kart Double Dash on GameCube (1:2)

Running bets

  • If the number of births in December 2020 is higher than the number of births in December 2019 I will donate 15€. If it is lower, Maike will donate 15€.
  • If the number of divorces in Germany in 2021 is higher than in 2020, I will donate 50€. If it is lower, Maike will donate 50€. 
  • If an autonomously driving car will be for sale for private people anywhere in the world until the end of 2025, I will donate €60. If not, Nadia will donate €20.

Resolved bets

  • I bet Franzi whether humans or horses were faster on long distances. For evidence, there is e.g. the Horse vs. Man Marathon. We decided that I had won 60% and Franzi 40% of the bet, so I donated €4 and she donated €6.
  • I bet Habakuk whether rats were predominantly active during the day or during the night. They are mostly nocturnal. I was a fool and donated €10 to effective charity.
  • I lost a round of chess against Anton. I donated €15 to effektiv-spenden.org
  • Private bet with Habakuk I lost. I donated €50 to effektiv-spenden.org
  • I bet with Habakuk whether it was Malaria or Smallpox that contributed most to the staggering number of deaths among the South-American natives during the times of the conquistadores. It was Smallpox and I donated 30€ to effektiv-spenden.org
  • I bet with Habakuk about the correct temperature for Onsen eggs. I won and Habakuk donated 10€ to AMF
  • I bet Marius that Elizabeth Warren gets to be Democratic presidential candidate for odds of 1:0.33. I lost and donated 10€. 
  • we had a private bet on where our flatmate will apply for his Erasmus semester. I lost and have donated €10 to Anima International, Receipt #: 4619727
  • Sophia played me in a game of HalliGalli and lost. She donated €6 to Helen Keller International, Reference 133260316
  • We played a game of Rage Cage (for charity reasons only of course) and I bet €10 I would not have to drink anything. Due to Anne’s heroic efforts I lost my bet and donated €10.
  • I played Halli Galli against Hannah twice and won both times. She and Luzy both gave €5. I put this bet together with the one above and donated €20.84 to Evidence Action, donation number 26616750.
  • I bet Sophia (10€) and Malte (20€) that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will be the CDU candidate for the 2021 general election in Germany. The odds were 1:3.5, so I donated 105€ to the EA Fund.
  • I bet a friend in February that there would be less than 100 million deaths from Corona until the end of 2020. If there are more I will donate 380 GBP. If not, he will donate 20 GBP. I consider this bet a win for me.
  • We bet again in May. If there are more than 100 million deaths from Corona until the end of 2020 I will donate 1000 GBP. If not, he will donate 1 GBP. I consider this bet a win for me.
  • I bet Nathan that less than 50% of all smartphone users will have a contact tracing app installed on their device in Germany. If I am right, Nathan will donate 20 GBP. If there are more than 50% who have such an app, I will donate 120 GBP. I consider this bet a win for me.
  • If Carrie Lam is no longer chief administrator of Hong Kong at the end of 2020, I will donate €15. If she is, Jonas will donate €30. I consider this bet a win for me.
  • If Joe Biden gets to be Democratic presidential candidate, I donate 30€. If he doesn’t, Samuel donates €20. I consider this bet a loss for me. 
  • If the DAX closes on 31.12.2020 with a value higher than 13249 points (value on 31.12.2019), Habakuk donates €25. If it doesn’t, I will donate €50. I consider this bet a win for me. 
  • If Marihuana gets legalized anywhere in Germany for recreational use in 2020 I will donate 480€. If it does not get legalized anywhere in Germany, Philip will donate 30€. I consider this bet a win for me. 
  • I made a bet about the German liberal party, FDP. If they get seats in the parliament in the 2021 election, my opponent will donate 15€. If they don’t make it, I will donate 45€. I won the bet and my opponent donated 15€ to effektiv-spenden.org
  • If Armin Laschet will be the CDU/CSU candidate for the next general election, I will donate 27 Euros. If not, Chiara will donate 27 Euros. I lost this bet and donated 27€ to effektiv-spenden.org
  • We had a bet who could hold a plank longer. I won by a margin of 103s and my opponent therefore donates 103€ to effective charity.

 

 

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