Link of the day: Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else
Fivethirtyeight is a polling site run by Nate Silver that has an outstanding track record of predicting the outcomes of past US elections. In 2016, they gave Trump higher changes than almost everybody else. This article gives an interesting overview of some of the intricacies of predicting election outcomes. Most of it is still relevant in 2020.