Link of the day: Replication Markets
Replicatiomarkets is a scientific project that aims to assess how reproducible scientific studies are – and how we might know about it even without the study actually being replicated. The idea is simple. Everyone can sign up and make predictions (“Surveys”) or bets (“Markets”) about the replicability of around 30,000 scientific studies. During Survey weeks and Market weeks participants make claims or trade shares for certain bets. They can then win money according to the accuracy and quality of their predictions. Participating is entirely free – participants can never lose any money. The claims made by participants are eventually used to train statistical models to predict the reproducibility of future scientific claims. Sign up, this is a really cool project!