Saturday, 04.02.2020 – Why Prediction Markets Are Sometimes Bad At Predicting

Link of the day: Why prediction markets are bad at predicting who’ll be president

Some odds offered on prediction markets are really weird. Currently, shares for Hillary Clinton being nominated as presidential candidate are trading at 8-9cts on predictit. Who in their right mind would give her a 8-9% chance?!? Please tell me if I a am completely misunderstanding the way that predictit works… The article gives a light overview of the topic.

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