TLDR

• Metaculus is a prediction platform that collects and aggregates predictions from users on a wide range of questions
• An increase in the number of forecasters seems to lead to an improvement of the Metaculus community prediction. I believe this effect is real, but due to confounding effects, the analysis presented here might overestimate the improvement gained. 
• That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to