Year: 2023

Categories Forecasting, Statistics

More Is Probably More – Forecasting Accuracy and Number of Forecasters on Metaculus

TLDR

  • Metaculus is a prediction platform that collects and aggregates predictions from users on a wide range of questions
  • An increase in the number of forecasters seems to lead to an improvement of the Metaculus community prediction. I believe this effect is real, but due to confounding effects, the analysis presented here might overestimate the improvement gained. 
  • That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to
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Categories Effective Altruism

Reflections on Wytham Abbey

This post was also posted to the EA Forum.

In April 2022, the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) (now EVF) bought Wytham Abbey (a 1480 manor near Oxford) as a conference venue. The purchase was mostly funded by Open Philanthropy. To many, Wytham Abbey looked somewhat more luxurious and expensive than strictly necessary for an event location, which sparked some discussions. 

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At least on Twitter, public perception isn’t quite what one might have hoped for:

Even among … more