In Favor Of Contact Tracing Apps

I recently wrote an article stating that “Contact Tracing Apps Are Not Going To Save us“. Some people pointed out that while maybe not a silver bullet, they might still help in fighting a pandemic. I concede there are indeed scenarios where contact tracing apps could be helpful.

Public transport

Buses and trains are often poorly ventilated and people sit comparably close to each other. Spending a lot of time in public transport is therefore a significant risk. … more

Monday, 11.05.2020 – Motherhood Penalties Seem To Be Highest For The Well Educated

Link of the day: Do Highly Paid, Highly Skilled Women Experience the Largest Motherhood Penalty?

Motherhood reduces women’s wages. […] We find that among white women, the most privileged—women with high skills and high wages—experience the highest total penalties, estimated to include effects mediated through lost experience. Although highly skilled, highly paid women have fairly continuous experience, their high returns to experience make even the small amounts of time some of them take out of employment for childrearing costly.

Contact Tracing Apps Are Not Going To Save us

Link of the day: Contact-tracing apps are not a solution to the COVID-19 crisis

Update: I recently also wrote an article in favor of contact tracing apps as a response to this one.

A lot of people put a lot of hope into contact tracing apps. I think these hopes, unfortunately, are somewhat misguided. There are a couple of categories of arguments against these apps:

False Positives – what is a contact?

Most current proposals are based on Bluetooth. … more

New Bets!

A while ago I started charity bets. Here are a couple of new and updated bets I would be willing to take:

  1. Kim Jong-Un is not announced dead in 2020 (90%, 1:9 odds)
  2. Kim Jong-Un is not announced dead before May 31st 2020 (95%, 1:19 odds)
  3. There will be no vaccine against the coronavirus administered to more than 10,000 people by the end of 2020 (80%, 1:4 odds)
  4. Trump will be reelected in 2020 (55%, 45:55 odds)
  5. There will
more