With the beginning of the new year, quite a few of last year’s bets got resolved. Note these are only the bets that resolved on New Year’s Eve. For every one of these bets, the loser will donate a certain amount to effective charity.
- I bet a friend in February that there will be less than 100 million deaths from Corona until the end of 2020. If there are more I will donate 380 GBP. If not, he will donate 20 GBP.
We bet again in May. If there are more than 100 million deaths from Corona until the end of 2020 I will donate 1000 GBP. If not, he will donate 1 GBP.
There are now around 2m deaths from Covid-19 worldwide, so I count both bets as a win for me.
- I bet Nathan that less than 50% of all smartphone users will have a contact tracing app installed on their device in Germany at the end of 2020. If I am right, Nathan will donate 20 GBP. If there are more than 50% who have such an app, I will donate 120 GBP.
In September, the app was downloaded 18.4m times. The Google Play store now shows around 10m downloads. Extrapolating from the September numbers, I estimate there were fewer than 30m downloads.
In 2019, there were roughly 60m smartphones in Germany, so I count this bet as a win for me.
Economics and Finance
- In January (before the Covid-19 pandemic started), I bet Habakuk on the value of the DAX. If the DAX closed on 31.12.2020 with a value higher than 13249 points (value on 31.12.2019), Habakuk would donate €25. Else, I would donate €50. The value of the DAX on 30.12.2020 was 13,718. I therefore consider this bet as a win for me.
- I made the following bet with Phil: If Marihuana gets legalized anywhere in Germany for recreational use in 2020 I will donate 480€. If it does not get legalized anywhere in Germany, Philip will donate 30€. I consider this bet a win for me.
- I made the following bet with Jonas: If Carrie Lam is no longer chief administrator of Hong Kong at the end of 2020, I will donate €15. If she is, Jonas will donate €30. As of now, Carrie Lam is still the Chief Administrator of Hong Kong. I therefore consider this bet a win for me.
- I bet Franzi I could make 40 push-ups until the end of the year. For every push-up less than that, I would donate €5. For every push-up more than that she would donate €5. I completed 46 push-ups. So Franzi would have to donate €30. As she could not complete her part of the bet due to injury, we agreed that Franzi would donate €50.
- I bet Beccs I could do 25 pull-ups by the end of 2020 (she bet she could do 5). I did 16 (which was lower than my previous record of 17). I consider this crushing defeat and testimony to the fact that I should sometimes better keep my mouth shut. As there was a difference of 9 pull-ups to my target, I will donate €90. Beccs did 4 pull-ups, so will donate €10.
- bets won: 7. bets lost: 1
- money donated by me: 90 Euros. money donated by others: 41 GBP and 145 Euros